is Apple dead?


 
 

is Apple dead?

 

“Can’t innovate? My ASS!”
here!

1st read the hard #s or facts
in our comprehensive FaceBook article
here!

Mad Money Cramer on Apple, 2012 Apr 9

 
 

Is Apple Dead?

this is the propaganda the media FUD is spreading now that…

1. Steve Jobs is dead and Apple lost its head, literally (Wed Oct 5’11)

2. yesterday, Tue Oct 18, Apple’s Quarterly estimates, for the 1st time in 3 years have been negative

3. and all the other b.s. they spread

see 2013-04-25 article following Q2 2013 Earnings report on Tue Apr 23.
Ernie Varitimos at explains how “Apple fell victim to Index Funds” in his 2013-04-25 The St. article.
due to psychotic emotional trading.
they, not Apple or Tim Cook, are entirely responsible for the volatility.
big funds took profit, oversold, followed by deluge of public panic selling more,
exacerbated by their confusion/fear/chaos.
they got it so wrong, thanks to spreading their own diarrhea or FUD (Fear / Uncertainty / Doubt).
Samsung took full advantage & spread massive Apple Smear Campaign!

Some say it’s a combination of falling victim to:
1. Index Funds
2. Hedge Funds
3. Institutional Funds

 

NO it’s alive & better than ever!

since when is the media about truth?!

•  1/MEDIA TRUTH

the printing press was invented 1436 to free people from clergy-control over information
yet modern media (print/tv/web) though freeing in some respects,
has loosened people’s control in the wrong direction,
since it’s easier, faster, more omnipresent for the same old few elites to brainwash us 24/7/365!

the saddest thing of modern society:
media / journalists / analysts / doctors / lawyers
…oh, and Advertisers of course, whose blatant exaggerations on screen should not be legal!
as all their b.s. is unproven; after all, just look at U.S. pharma ads: they even tell us the damn pill
will cure your headache

but
a. it’s a lie, since the underlying cause is not treated
b. your head might feel better, but you’re 90% dead from all the symptoms or side effects of that pill!
c. the pills already give you diarrhea or dysentry,
yet they cover their asses with 100mph small text that no one ever reads or gets,
as they know they’re guilty of health crimes, not law suits!

since information is everything, the most responsible teachers are the anal-ysts & journalists.
hence, since they’re lying day in day out they deserve to be unemployed at least in their responsible fields.
they are the shame of our modern societies.

sure it’s not easy, but what job is?!
if everyone was responsible, our economies would not be in dire straits.
just do your damn jobs!
there is no need for censorship or checking every word of every mouth,
that’s unnatural.
yet if all were responsible, humanely decent, it’s a step forward.
another self-check is Karma.
a 3rd self-check is the world you leave your kids to inherit: do bad, feel bad for them.
do good, they should be good.
4th check: pride
5th check: excellence (a la Steve Jobs)

the shame is there’s so much unemployment – so these schmucks should be replaced.

 

 

proof:
0 my ass

Apple tells all “Can’t innovate anymore, MY ASS!
Good for you Phil Schiller ; )
Finally an American on an American stage expresses their democratic right to free speech
in this politically correct, morally incorrect, boring times we live in.

But there’s always bitchers
that find fault with Apple
& they already complain that Apple’s intended or non-intended remark on stage
at the WWDC on June 10’13,
clouds (no pun intended) the firm’s real challenges:
it is not enough to look & feel cool when you neglect data & services (as iSteve did).

Well, is it not amazing how everyone is smarter than Apple
& knows how to run the world better than Apple
yet none of these people are richer for it
or of any significance to society
as they never achieved anything of value,
let alone change the world 7 times over as Apple did & still does?!

Walk the Talk!!
Do it better than Apple before opening your big mouths.

Everyone will now copy the single-fan cylindrical desktop design,
like Samsung / Wintel / BB / Nokia / Moto / HP / Sony / FB / Goo etc.

and all will take credit for it – or at least take it for granted in patents
…while the courts succumb to mediocrity & bribes as they’re too rigid & dumb
to be original & just
…is it not astonishing that humans hailed Apple
yet now wish to break it apart
when it is the only true innovative U.S. firm
& that is in the black (recession-proof)
& that could make “Made in USA” proud
& that doesn’t waste taxes on bailouts
& is the 7th largest tax payer in the U.S. (though some still bitch it should pay more?!)
& that pushes green energy
& is loved worldwide etc! etc. etc.
 
 

proof:
1 disinfo
a.

George Orwell’s 1948 novel is not a novelty, as we all agree governments watch us

 

b. 24
the world’s most watched tv series (8 Seasons! from 2001-11-06 to 2010-05-24 created by 20C Fox)
showed us we’re not just being watched, but watched 24 hours

c.  Person of Interest
when the world lost “24” in mid 2010, Person of Interest tries to fill the void,
as a cross between “24” & “Lost”
it’s a tv series by CBS, S1 launched 2011-09-22

it shows us beyond “24”, that we’re being watched 24 hrs + recorded 24/7365
and without our consent

 

proof:
VentureBeat

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Sinanian argues Apple will not suffer the typical fate of most electronics firms i.e. RCA etc.
since…

a. ECOSYSTEM:
Apple has an ecosystem!
RCA suffered from being one-dimensional, and once a technology is not longer revolutionary,
having invented the TV, consumer electronics become low-margin commodities – from luxury to affordable gadgets.
Apple’s eco-system includes: hardware, software, software, services, retail…

b. FUNDS:
to be on top nowadays, there’s just too much investment required.
everyone outsources. except Apple. not as much anyway. they are the only ones working in both hard-and-soft ware. the initial cost of entry to even start manufacturing high-tech devices for commodity items, is too grand for anyone to compete with Apple i.e. R&D + manufacturing plants + CNC or 3D cutting machines +  clean room + parts + distribution etc.

c. SCALE:
the sheer Economy of Scale is overwhelming.
this is one of Apple’s biggest advantages.
it’s hardly surmountable.
how can anyone, had they they brain, the vision, the actual technology on Apple’s level,
still compete on price level?! they can not.
[Apple like China, controls most supplies for raw materials & rare earth supplies so highly essential for all electronics]

d. EFFICIENCIES:
the efficiencies of scale built into Apple as conceptualizer, manufacturer, distributor, marketer etc.,
is very tough to beat.

[we’d say, it’s beyond competitive; it’s Nazi-like total efficiency is too perfected to just be killed by any competitor, big mouth or not. walking the talk is not possible, lest, like Apple, you have been a phoenix, or risen from the ashes, like Apple, have changed like a chameleon to survive, never fearing change or new trends & New World Order. if you can’t adapt with such precision & agility, you simply can not compete–with apple at least!]

e. RECURRING BIZ:
Apple owns the “lock-in” effect.
once you invest time in their devices, then hook to their services
i.e. iTunes Music Store + App Store + Mac App Store + iBooks Store + iCloud etc.
it’s hard to get out, so you’re a recurrent customer, spending an avg. of $150/anum.

Asymco’s Dediu valuates Apple’s recurring revenue,
based only on current, not projected, install base,
to reach $620B!! by 2014
see here

[naysayers hate Apple for being locked in.
Apple does not lock you in- it’s a myth.
users have the choice.
their music content comes in non-Apple formats to play on any device.
it’s user laziness to convert to non-Apple devices that is the issue.
plus it’s ironic, since were the situation reverted, and they started with non-Apple devices,
then wish to convert to Apple devices, they’d just be in the same situation:
having to waste time converting.
so Apple, is hyped to be anti-competitive by the competition & misinforming media.

as for Apple’s devious plan with their ecosystem:
it’s not evil. they’re not into greedy capitalism
as they are into being every user’s main smooth operator.
Apple offers the least glitch,
the most pleasant intuitive interfaces,
solutions that simply just work, not frustrate,
the biggest advantage & least headaches for your money:
if you can find more simplicity & ubiquity,
then complain, not before.]

f. WISDOM:
Steve Jobs said competitors i.e. Microsoft/Android “just don’t get it”
it’s so true.
hardware specs do not matter so much.
the consumer experience is it.

An example of Apple increasing its consumer mind set influence
could be the upcoming real AppleTV.
even though Google is also planning its own version.

[it’s the software “stupid” which counts.
it’s the brains, not brawn.
it’s the total integration of all devices, the ubiquity,
the simplicity to the end user from the ecosystem!

how else would Apple defy gravity & be the only recession-proof firm in the black?
it is NOT luck to beat quarterly earnings for 3 years of consecutive quarters!
who else is debt-free?
who else has a coffin over $80B! in cash flow?!
who else has all that and still paid for the biggest data centers/clouds in the world?
who else influenced over 7 industries and still has room to grow in them + the next industries?
who else has Apple Universities?
R&D labs barely exists nowadays. Apple’s is too important.

as for Google TV:
it’s no big deal for Apple.
1st Google has 1000s of projects
all in beta!
they rarely finish anything or take it seriously;
their plans are haphazardly falling upon an idea that works,
vs Apple which is totally & continuously focused.
plus Google has no clue on how to do hardware,
vs Apple that has the most experience in any industry with both hard-and-softw-ware.
plus Google depends on the too-many-cooks-in-hte-kitchen broth of what is Android: chaos.
then Google Voice can never comet with Apple SiriTV plans;
Apple is the one reinventing the TV;
no one else has such vast intelligence, power & funds behind its projects]

Say Wat?
Yes, Apple is wiser than all the Rest.
another Wise Apple Trait was Steve Jobs’ relentless pursuit for perfection,
not for perfection’s sake,
but for his refusal to compromise on product quality.
as James Kendrick explains in his ZDNet articles, 2011 Nov 19.

1984-2000 was a corporate era.
2000-now is a Consumer era.
Consumers/users are aware, can’t be fooled by hype as much anymore.
Apple fits naturally in this new era of less b.s.
for all of Apple’s competitors, it’s always “good enough.”
but such pure walmartian-capitalistic greed is not Apple’s DNA.
hence the sheer loyalty Apple users gift Apple with in return.
yet naysayers call this trust “fan-boy” brainwashing.
look whose talking – whose the sheep – following crapware and paying for it,
esp. with unproductive repairs.

Apple’s future is bright,
as it’s simple.
the rest is convoluted, epic, neurotic.

 

g. LONGEVITY:
naysayers can argue logically:  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

but since when was Apple ever in that category?!
Apple has always been misunderstood & underestimated by market anal-ysts!
so-called experts, who can state logical statements all they want,
but Apple has defied gravity & recession.
nothing does last forever.
not even societies.
however, as this page argues, there’s plenty of logical reason why Apple is not just not dead,
following the Psot-Steve era,
but more than healthy and alive.
after all, everyone around it is crumbling, going bankrupt, or as Steve stated “flummoxed,”
whereas Apple has no debt & more cash & more ideas up its sleeves,
more power, more efficiencies, more economy of scale advantages,
better flexibility, the most experience of change & survival than anyone ever in human & business history!

plus it has vision.
vision, originality, creativity, flexibility, care, respect for customers,
is part of Apple’s DNA.
since none of it is logical, the logical argument above,
about Apple not being able to keep its advantage over the competition,
is simply ignorant, closed-minded and the exact reason why,
the competition will always remain flummoxed!

+++update wire+++2013-04-18+++

Microsoft Partners PARTNERS state that Windows8 caused millions of defectors to Apple! ; )
well, surely that’s a reason, but even more of a reason is Apple’s quality iDevices & unrivaled ecosystem + ubiquity that make all of us Smooth Operators, as smooth as Sade’s silkiness…
see BGR article for this.

 

h. OPEN-SOURCE:
naysayers can also argue that Apple is not open-source.
again. who cares.
that’s a naysayer’s main excuse for Apple not surviving?!
how smart an argument.

that’s supposing that open-source has been proven as the ultimate success.
it has not.
it’s popular. there’s many open-source solutions.
but unlike New Age Enlightenment,
we’re talking technology here – it’s different.
philosophy is subliminal. technology is concrete.
what counts is ubiquity & user experience.
is 4 decades of Apple proving this point not ample!?
Apple has not shot to the stratosphere in the last decade especially,
due to luck or haphazardness.
it’s that user finally have recognized the previous 3 decades of abuse & lies,
bribery & misconception, thanks to IT departments misfeeding corporate management & media,
about what works & doesn’t, to protect their careers,
but in the new age of web 2.o & social network viral marketing,
Apple, more than anyone, understands and is able to deliver,
upon its promises for ease of use, total integration, smooth operator status.
like Sade, Apple is uniquely suave, silky.

that Apple is not open-source or is against it, or that is won’t last,
is nothing but FUD, Stockholm Syndrome, jealousy, spite etc. nothing concrete or logical.
people have this warped idea that freedom or choice is it.
just as in politics: all these new countries formed lately,
yet none can survive well after their initial big talk on freedom.
people will always need others. Steve Jobs said, teamwork is it, not interdepartmental competition.

Apple’s iTunes format is open!
Apple actually is the one who freed the music industry towards the end user.
Apple fought the legal battles for us agains the studios so we can benefit from that.
Apple’s competition only rode on Apple’s back, yet they complain!?
Apple did not invent USB but had the vision to popularize it for us.
Apple freed us from SCSCI by going to USB in 1998.
Apple is doing it again with Thunderbolt (liberating & simplifying all peripherals on 1 connector type).
Apple freed us from overbloated software with all of its software solutions.
Apple freed video production to “professional” level with  consumers through iLife.
Apple freed us from limited mobility to ubiquitous mobile computing.
Apple has the 1st real practical full-blown Cloud.
Apple’s MacOSX is open-source Unix.
Apple’s iOS is semi-open. not closed! but only to ensure smooth user experience.

Apple’s anti-Flash stance is fully justified in Steve Jobs’ “Thoughts on Flash
where he states people misunderstand open-source to mean free.
Adobe claims Flash is open but it is in fact closed. Apple’s alternative push for HTML5 IS open!

the flaw with open vs closed argument is this:
open is not always better.
closed is not necessarily fully closed.
open is an ideal. it’s not always practical.
if it can be done better than closed or semi-cosed, then fine.
but until such a solution is indeed more advantageous, it’s silly to argue.
one can argue forever whether God exists or not.
it shouldn’t be about pro or con camps.
it should be about what works better at the state-of-the-art moment in time.
Apple only chooses what’s best for the end-user.
if you think Apple is just evil & abusive, use the competition, stop crying, and be happy
if you prefer less stability, more chaos, confusing customer service,
no simplicity, shopping to manually combine 100s of services with no ubiquity & total integration in sight etc.

to each his own.
some people prefer to have tools that simply work as opposed to frustrate.
life is too short.
open sorcerers obviously prefer complexity & have the luxury to waste time,
as if they’re privileged or Chosen to have more time than the rest of us on this planet.

the beauty of open source is idealistic.
more people working at fixing it than any other system.
yet too many cooks in the kitchen can also spoil the broth.

and don’t forget:
the big irony of Open-Source.
it can encourage teamwork or solidarity.
but the counter effect is: stealing ideas.
Apple’s competitor ors for instance,
Microsoft, Google etc.
steal, steal big.
then propagate, propagate fast.
if you flood the market before copyright infringement laws catch on,
you surmount your inadequacy & weaknesses,
by seeming to have actually invented something worthy or a culture-altering reality.
so the guilty party to the “Reality Distortion Field” so attributed to Steve Jobs,
is actually Apple’s competitors!
you see, people always jump so fast to conclusions,
yet think about it!

that is the best way for Apple’s competition to win any Apple-product-killing wars of economy.
legally, hm, illegally, literally!
not through meritocracy!!
not through innovation on any level – from hard/softw-ware, to manufacturing, retail, distribution, marketing etc.

proof:
betanews

Ed Oswald reasons why Apple’s surely not dead, Apple is even decades ahead.

read his article in beta news 2011 Nov 5 Sat “Forget analysts and pundits: Apple’s best days are ahead”
his thesis:
1. Wall St is blind;
when they are not, they only see the now, now, now, never the long-term foundations.
2. Analysts are not Gods to know it all
3. tomorrow’s clients are loyal to Apple, since the young generation grew up with it,
and when adults in careers are the decision makers

proof:
CNN

Andy M. Zaky argues how the media spreads FUD or lies, esp. about Apple, and Apple dying
as a true, responsible journals should!
most of our media nowadays more than ever, lie
call it disinfo / white lies / political correctness / peer pressure /
social networking likes  / competition’s bribes / interest groups /
blackmail / fud / or whatever you wish to scapegoat it with…

read his fine article from 2011- Oct 19,
the morning after Apple’s Quarterly results were overestimated by Wall St.

“Why Apple’s big miss doesn’t matter”


http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/19/why-apples-big-miss-doesn’t-matter

 

Zaky’s points on why Apple is definitely not dead,
with our Stevessence uncensored twist [in brackets]:

1. market analysts have never understood Apple
[hence they’re called anal-ysts: no offense, but like most doctors, they don’t care for their oath,
to uphold principles, but instead worry about their livelihoods, which depend on headline-grabbing,
controversial but empty claims and disinfo or keeping the folks numb-dumb]

2. Apple did not miss anything.
they surpassed their estimates yet again.
if you accuse Apple of always underestimating to embellish results,
well, they surpassed themselves by a wide margin,
that can only be reached by solid finances or great products etc.

3.  it is the Analysts who overestimated Apple – hence the analysts missed it unrealistically

4. Apple is finished doom sayers:

“Apple has finally succumbed to global recession”
or “Apple’s best days are behind”
or “Apple has peaked

such nonsense:
yes, there is a worldwide recession.
yes, most industries and firms are affected.
but Apple’s numbers prove the opposite!

a. Apple is the only debt-free co.

b. Apple has more cash than its entire industry or competitors together

c. the avg. co. in the Tech industry trades at multiples of 17x earnings
Apple trades at 8x at $400 share & being the only firm in the Black,
should normally or fairly be at 16x or $550/share!

 

d. consider 2012 estimates of $150B cash, if cashed it,
it would trade at 5x earnings,
so 16x would be way over $550/share

e. nothing about Apple has changed!?! Apple is as solid as ever.
[Steve died, fine, but he entrenched his DNA into Apple University
to train staff to keep up the solid work: Apple is not in danger of survival]

f. Apple beats its own estimates each quarter by 12-18%
this Quarter 3 2011, Apple beat its expectations 13%!
that’s more than 2010 yet Wall St punishes it now?

g.  Apple is the co. that is most consistent in results!
it can not control how reasonable parameters from analysts are.
Apple even warned analysts this Q would be transition quarter!
yet analysts don’t listen or admit their misrepresentation.

h. Apple missed what? it estimated $25B revenue, got $29.7B!
that’s a whopping 18.8% improvement!!
[who achieves that?! no other co. yet Apple is punished?!]

i. Analysts know 18.8% is higher than all their previous Quarters
when they did accept Apple has beating estimates, why not now?!
this is so wrong on so many levels:

logically
scientifically
financially
historically
fairly

j. Apple’s 2011 earnings sofar:
60% rev growth yoy ($42B)
77.7% EPS growth
33M iPhones/Q sold (100% growth yoy from 16M)

k. Apple far eclipsed the Microsoftian behemoth!
in both EPS + rev, yet Wall St. ludicrously denies that?!

proof:
NYT

Nick Wingfield, in his Oct 18 article in the New York Times
clarifies that [with our Stevessence uncensored twist in brackets] :
1. Apple did lose 16% in iPhone sales
but who cares, if overall, the firm was firm, showed recored results?

[2. analysts are anally-retentive: they don’t see beyond their tree or dick size:
fact is, that this Q3 is traditionally the worst, and if the iPhone5 was anticipated,
buyers would hold off iPhone4 purchases, naturally reducing unit sales!
you can never just blindly analyze – you must have historical & contextual knowledge,
or you will be an ignorant, useless bigot or immature &  irresponsible analyst or professional adult.

the fact that even after Apple’s keynote without Steve, the day before his passing,
the analysts, media, even some fans were depressed about the iPhone4S not being the iPhone5,
proves how wrong everyone was about jumping to conclusions – since the iPhone4S,
did turn out to be the hottest electronics launch in human history!

just wait for next Quarterly results!
these same analysts have misunderstood Apple all along.
semi-pro bloggers have been more serious & correct!
these same analyst predicted iPhone would never sell beyond 2M in its lifetime.
Apple has sold 33M just this quarter!!

Apple is still recession-proof!
to conclude that less iPhones is proof of declining consumer demand is ridiculous.

that’s how totally off & unrealistic anal-ysts are: they’re anal. retentive.]

3. Apple gained 54% profits yoy + 39% revenue yoy
for any other co. that IS enviable!!
such amazing gains, despite recession means Apple is robust–nothing less!
[analysts have it against Apple; as does the media!]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/technology/apple-disappoints-analysts-despite-54-rise-in-profit.html?

proof:
TechCrunch

http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/19/apple-laughing-stock

 

article: “If you sold your Apple stock today, you’re an idiot” 2011 Oct 19 Wed,
day after Apple’s Q3 results

MG Siegler’s points:

1. listen to Analysts is self-destruction

2. Apple has not failed Wall St expectations in ca. 9 years (over 36 consecutive Quarters!)

3. Wall St’s expectations this Q were ridiculously flawed anyway:
analysts have no clue how to analyze Apple!

4. Analysts can proclaim the universe, yet are never held accountable! only the co. that they analyze is!
Apple takes the blame for analysts’ lame “expert” & overpaid brains

5. the ridiculous “miss” by Apple is the analysts’ ridiculous missing the point:
their only claim is iPhones sold 17M units vs expected 20-22M,
and their silly conclusion that since iPhone is everything at Apple, the co. is doomed.
[fact: Apple depends on many more products/services & had the  iPhone5/4S coming up!]
actually, this is Apple’s 2nd best ever quarter [not good enough for anal-ysts?!]
with record Mac + iPad growth.

6. the iPhone4S counts towards the next quarter Q4.
Apple did not follow tradition of Q3 iPhone releases.
so Q3 was not traditionally high in sales this year,
and people waited for the next iPhone, 4S, creating a Q down cycle or vacuum.

7. Apple stock “collapsed” (only 5.5%) for no reason! as usual!

8. NeXT for Apple: Q4:
Apple estimates recessions will not affect next Holiday Quarter:
$37B is $10B over their best Q yet!
so those blaming Apple for historically low estimates that are easier to beat,
[you try to earn that much in 1 Q, let alone 1 year or lifetime
– anyone? any competitor?! any industry?!]

 

proof:
Money Morning


http://moneymorning.com/2011/10/20/dont-worry-apple-stock-will-bounce-back

article: “Don’t Worry: Apple Stock Will Bounce Back”
by David Zeiler, assoc. editor, Money Morning, Thu 2011 Oct 20, 2 days after Apple’s Q3 results

Zeiler’s points:

1. Apple lost “aura of invincibility

2. $7.03/share vs $7.28 or $28.27B vs $29.45B rev expected caused stock to fall 5.59%

3. panic of new leadership set in doubt of sustainability;

let’s give new management [in Post-Steve era] a chance

4. emotional reaction is mistake since Apple fundamentals are as strong as ever

5. let’s not forget Emerging Market growth + Corporate entry for Apple
[and Educational + Government contracts!]
Emerging Markets: BRIC (Brazil Russia India China)

i.e. China = 16% of Apple rev 2011 so far (up from 12% 2010 or 2% 2009) [growing exponentially]
i.e. Brazil: 118% growth yoy or $900M! and growing…
i.e. Russia: big potential [From Russia With Love: they love Apple now;
Russian pres. Medvedev was the only respectable world leader to Steve Jobs…]

6. Apple’s Q3 is enviable, not a miss!
166% iPad growth
21% iPhone growth
26% Mac growth (6x industry avg!)
$25B revenue!
39%! revenue growth
54%! profit growth
40.3% gross margin (from 36.9% yoy)
$81.6B! cash!!

7. can Apple keep growth up?
yes!
a. Apple’s low estimate for next holiday Q is:
$37B rev [over $10B yoy growth]
40% rev growth

b. 73.4% market share in tablets but market is just starting
(Gartner predicts 900M tablets by 2016)
sure competition is growing, yet considering 2010 only had 17.6M tablets,
there’s plenty of room for iPads to grow

c. iPhone4S
it sold a world record of 4M in 1st 3 days, before Q3 ended.
imagine Q4!
expected iPhone sales for 2012: 107M units! (acc. to Janney Capital Markets‘ Bill Choi)

d. Mac are selling at record numbers.
Macs are only 5% of global desktop market: much room to grow.
[Macs are 12% US market share
many Mac sales are from Switchers who are disillusioned by all competitive PCs;
and let’s not forget Apple’s “Halo” effect, rubbing off iDevices,
where 1st-time Apple users are hooked by the quality & ease, trust the brand,
buy their next PCs from Apple;
and their growing loyalty assures more Mac or Apple sales in future]

e. many analysts
[though they’re an odd silly predictably dumb bunch,
some serious analysts among them]
do predict AAPL, now at $398, to reach $455-$660+ 

 

proof:
Motley Fool

Joe Tenebruso at The Motley Fool, titled his article for hyping hits: “Is Apple on the Verge of Collapse” 2011 Nov 17 Thu
since AAPL fell to $377/share over the last few weeks from its historic high at $422 in mid-Oct.
but not to panic, say Joe, as Apple, is only affected by mis-analysis, mis-interpretation, and was always mis-understood.

unlike competitors, Apple has the least problems, no debt, the most positive outlook, as it is a big shot, but acts like a SmallBiz in flex.

Apple is used to threat, but maybe competitors are finally maturing in catching up?
with the current Apple-killer products such as:
• Google Android tablets & SmartPhones
• Amazon Kindle Fire tablet
• Microsoft Windows 8 for mobiles too

but Apple is the one who never sits on its lazy ass, and has the most NeXT high-tech toys up its sleeves…

 

proof:
Apple Stock

$422  2011 Sep 20 (actual historical high)
$310 2011 Jun 20 (lowest 2011)
$190 2010 Jan 29 (lowest 2010)
$78 2009 Jan 20 (lowest 2009)

AAPL stock predictions:
from market analysts…
$545 2012 Canaccord Genuity, Michael Walkley (2011 Sep 6)
$500 
2012 Forbes (2011 Nov 25 Fri)
$426
 2012 SeekingAlpha (2011 Nov 28 Mon)

 

LOW P/E:

finally a more credible explanation was reported
on explaining the long-standing myth behind AAPL’s low P/E,
esp. when so many competitors in/out of its field are so much higher, despite negative earnings.

CNN Money explains it 2011 Dec 2,
in Philip Elmer-DeWitt’s article “About Apple’s incredible shrinking P/E ratio”

THE REASONS:
1. ignorance:
analysts as Leonid Kanopka who typically see AAPL as a “bubble ready to burst”
do not understand the co. or P/E
2.  ignorance:
low P/E means low confidence. low confidence means analysts fear Apple’s low diversity.
it has nothing to do with reality. but since they influence the market, it is.
3. value:
Asymco’s Horace Dediu deducts “value of future, unknown products is zero”
plus Apple rarely launches products.
plus innovation is not valuable till launch.

4. naysayers:
then of course, you have the typical list of nay-sayers’ views
as reported by Reuter’s Andy Zaky, 2011 Nov 28 Mon, in his article “Chart of the day, Apple valuation edition”
i. run out of buyers
ii. we’re already all long on AAPL
iii. share price high (Apple is not interested in buy back or div or shareholders)
iv. high market cap (wealth is harder to create)
v. mean-reversion (unsustainable growth; true conceptually
but to practically as AAPL market share is still small & has much potential)
vi.  iSteve is dead. (new management needs a gen gap after Steve’s shadow to prove themselves)
vii. Apple earns most from disposable consumer income (world economy will affect it most)
viii. AAPL has no Bear case (stocks rise when bearish, but since all think AAPL is undervalued, it’s hard to rise)

5. endurance:
thanks to CNN Money reader Jim Neal…
it matters not if Apple is richer than everyone
as it launches too few products for typical investor perspective.
ironically, they wish Apple would mimic other firms,
despite their crashes,
and contradictorily, they wish Apple would avoid it as they do burn i.e. RIM.

they will raise AAPL’s worth when they feel like it
– which is only when Apple launches new products.

our interpretation:
Apple’s reality is that it is worthier than other firms.
it does have much life left, even in Post-Steve era.
but anal-ysts, being anally-retentive, constipated or whatever,
are short-sighted, tight, fearful, not realistic.

Apple is not perceived as having ample products.
competitors produce a plethora of cheap produce i.e. SmartPhones,
overspend on R&D, and see all their products stubmle,
yet Apple’s 1-iPhone-per-year is seen as failure, despite record sales every quarter.
go figure.

Apple is seen as not diversified.
everyone but Apple is in the Red.
competitors have not beaten Apple in over a decade, since 2001’s iPod, or 1998’s iMac.
in fact, as Steve Jobs stated in his Apple media event “Come see what 2011 will be the year of” 2011 Mar 2,
Apple has “competitors flummoxed” (with the iPad).
fact is, not only are all of Apple’s competitors clueless,
they’re failing as all their products don’t even come close to Apple’s sales or popularity or loyalty.

what no expert analyst ever mentions, or sees, is that no co. diversifies as much as Apple!
that is WHY Apple is in the Black & survives better than atone.
Apple, not anyone else, is the Business Phoenix, rising from ashes continuously,
constantly redefining itself, bold entering new industries, turning them all around,
as its Reality Distortion Field is less distorted than anyone else’s
and it is Apple that creates $Billions worth of accessory or side-business that thrive on its creations.
who care if Apple does not invent things, if they improve & simplify them & do it better than anyone else.
people’s lives are too complex not to love Apple.

PC: it is Apple which started with the 1st PC: Apple I 1976, Mac 1984
WEB: it is Steve Jobs’ NeXT PC with Tim Berners-Lee in 1991 that enabled the Internet
CAM: it is Apple’s QuickTake in 1994 that heralded the digital camera revolution
PDA: it is Apple’s Newton in 1994 that heralded mobile & touch computing
USB: it is Apple’s vision of a 1996 PC-technology that popularized USB since 1998’s iMac
FIREWIRE: it is Apple’s IEEE1394 that replaced the horribly unstable but standard SCSI
THUNDERBOLT: it is Apple’s/Intel’s Thunderbolt that launched the next connection revolution, since 2011-05
iTV: it is Apple that popularized the digital TV interface with AppleTV in 2007,
despite Tivo’s 1999 intro, as Apple influenced Hulu & Netflix
MP3: it is Apple’s 2001 iPod that revolutionized the music industry
MUSIC: it is Apple’s iTunes Music Store that changed the music industry since 2005
MOBILE: it is Apple’s iPhone mid 2007 which revolutionized the SmartPhone & cellular provider industries
APPS: it is Apple’s App Store 2008-07 that invented the mobile app market
RETAIL: it is Apple’s Retail Store chain that redefined retail since 2001-05
SOFTWARE: it is Apple’s Mac App Store 2011-01 that re-invented the desktop app market
TABLET: it is Apple’s iPad that enabled the Tablet market in 2010-03
A.I.: it is Apple’s Siri that is enabling the future now, since 2011,
as it could derail Google/Bing in Search, Ads, & Mobile etc.

so, to say that Apple is not diversified, is plain stupid.
give me 1 other firm that has revolutionized or changed culture or society once,
and if, more than once.
Apple in a short 3 decades,
real experts agree Apple changed society at least 6/7x already!*
that is unheard of in human history.
give Apple credit where it’s due!

*choose from the longer (16x) list above, which 6-7 you value most,
but 7 is only the beginning for Apple!

 

AAPL P/E chart by Asymco’s Horace Dediu:

AAPL P/E = 34-35 2006-2008
AAPL P/E = 15-25 2008-2011
AAPL P/E = 10! 2011-12

AAPL’s P/E chart by Asymco’s Horace Dediu (2011 Dec 2)

 

AAPL’s P/E chart by Reuter’s Andy Zaky (2011 Nov 28)

 

 

 

Jason Schwarz on Fri 2013-04-18 stated Apple is not any stock and treated differently, by analysts & media. Its “calendar chaos” has “become more important than a p/e ratio!” See his full realistic article “Apple’s Calendar Chaos Trade Of 2013” at Seeking Alpha.

Jason: “Apple’s (AAPL) shifting product release cycle has created a high degree of investor uncertainty within the quarterly biased tradition of Wall Street. For a company that attracts more product release hype than any other in the history of planet earth, this shifting product release calendar has caused investors and analysts to be mislead regarding the true state of Apple’s financial health. It’s a phenomenon unique to Apple because no other company elicits the scope of product release volatility like Apple does…the product release calendar and its uncertain effect on year over year quarterly earnings analysis has trumped all other stock moving variables. It’s become more important than a p/e ratio…more important than being in tune with the hedge fund action that characterized all of those slingshot moves over the past three years. The hot new trade of 2013 is in sync with Apple’s year over year calendar shifts. We like to call it calendar chaos.”

 

 

2/HISTORIC FACT •
#1
there is no denying that Apple is the most valuable co. in the world.
yes, it was insigfinicant when smart ass Michael Dell diagnosed Apple as dead in 1997,
yet whose insignificant now, now that it’s 13x smaller than Apple?
but, Apple has beaten Exxon several times this year in market cap.

phoenix
Apple being bankrupt in 1997,
having  risen upon Steve Jobs’ return then,
from $1B to today’s $390B and only within 13 years,
that is a human & business achievement never before reached – not even close!

stamina
what more does anyone have to prove?!
why have it against Apple?!
what did they do to deserve your utter hatred or brutal punishment,
when it does everything right & better than all other firms,
which you never beat tot the pulp or ridicule, no matter how weak their profits or brains?!
at this point, it makes absolutely no sense,
it totally proves ignorance & jealousy, if not Stockholm Syndrome
– but never objective truth in reporting or analsys.

••••••••••••••••••>
a. Apple beat records all over the place in many industries and on all levels since 1997

••••••••••••••••••>
b. Apple has had better than expected consecutive quarters for over 3 years now,
incl. this last quarter! – despite the fid

••••••••••••••••••>
c. Apple has proven it’s recession-proof for 3 years!  NO one else has!

Apple has defied logic / business / financial / cultural / technological standards & gravity ; )

••••••••••••••••••>
d. Apple has proven it is a chameleon or phoenix! NO one else has!

Apple came out of ashes in 1997 to be the world’s darling.
Apple has changed more than any other business – why is that negative?!
if anything, it proves the fittest to survive is Apple,
as it does not fear itself, accepts reality & life’s challenges!

redefining oneself is not weakness. it’s strength. it’s natural. organic. intelligent.
everyone else fears change, gets stuck on same old shit products & business practices,
just because it used to work, yet we’re now in world recession,
thanks to closed-minded thinking – never condoned by Apple!

••••••••••••••••••>
e. Steve Jobs developed a deep DNA Apple University of his mantra.

he might be physically dead, yet his ways are not lost to his staff.
whereas some firms have a single sheet of principles,
Apple takes it much more seriously, by developing an actual curriculum,
by no other than out-of-the-box-smart Joel Podolny or the Yale Dean of Business School,
recruited since 2008!
read about Podolny’s Apple University in LA Times’ article by Jessica Guynn, 2011 Oct 6

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-apple-university-20111006,0,6177866,full.story

••••••••••••••••••>
f. do you seriously think Apple has peaked in sales?

it just entered China.
unlike Google which lost China,
Apple is

a. not silly for entering the world’s single most lucrative market
with 930M cell phone users!

b. not about cheap production line that will diminish its business like Walmart:
this is the latest FUD fed by media & naysayers:

1st, all firms outsource to the East, esp. China

2nd, Apple’s product quality ISO/standards are the highest in the world
– so look at other firms for worms
Apple rejects quality more than anyone & can afford to delay launches more than all

3rd, Apple’s so-called sweatshops are not unique to it, everyone else is in danger of it

not that it’s an excuse, but it’s easy to talk on our fat lazy asses
– you try to control the 3rd world or the mafia;
not to mention we have no idea about shame & guilt, but in China or Japan for instance,
it is not the co. that forces an employee to commit suicide but the individual who messed up on the production line or was caught leaking to the media or competition, whose so ashamed that, though unthinkable in the West, does commit to committing suicide – which has nothing to do with Apple condoning such principles at work!?
suicide is a cultural phenomenon we can’t control.

 

••••••••••••••••••>
g. do you seriously think Apple has peaked in innovation?

how naive are you?!
if it’s so easy to kill the iPhone why is it that every attempt by every bigger firm has failed to compete?
even more so with tablets?
with laptop/notebooks too.
with MP3 players again.
with mobile app stores.
with software stores.
with music stores.
with retail stores.
want to carry on?!
Apple defeated 6 industries!

every product Apple launches is conceived years earlier.
iCloud for instance was invented by Apple 20 years earlier!

do you seriously in your right mind, think Apple has no other products in the pipeline?!
come on.
not just materializing projects it conceived years ago,
but Steve Jobs left Apple with years more of innovations to produce.

do not forget:
inventing first means nothing without inventing
i. practical solutions.
ii. actualizing them: no one materializes dreams as much as Apple.
most, if they invent at all, have weak R&D labs or dream on,
as they loudly proclaim the next Apple product killer,
but always end up scrapping projects before they launch.
if not, they go bankrupt within weeks or months.

Apple is untouchable by nature of its character.
it has been when it was small in the 1980s.
it is now too, as a big shot,
since it acts like a Small Biz! (flexible innovation)

why do you not look & blame Apple’s competition,
which sat on its fat lazy ass for decades,
profiting from dummying consumers,
stealing their hard-earned money for nothing much,
hyping & lying about product quality or productivity gains,
never really innovating, just taking, greedily – hence our world recession!

••••••••••••••••••>
h. do you seriously think Apple has peaked in success?

even with no previous experience Apple defies gravity in potential + actual success!
i so many industries it never touched, it touched all consumers.
it’s never been achieved before.
give us one co. that transcended more than 2 industries!

 

Apple is the only firm with the right instincts for survival.
it’s in its DNA & blood to see things differently,
adapt, change, transcend, inspire…
no one else has seamlessly built power from ingenuity in all fields combined.

 

Apple’s school of thought or philosophy or principles
are the world’s seemingly most dogmatic,
yet actually most dynamic & naturally flexible!
no one survives like Apple, period.
show us who could’ve survived as they did.
show us who jumped to stratospheric proportions as they did.
Apple’s fundamentals, like no other, is fully sound!
they have ironed out even crevice of failure.
they’re a Nazi-like well oiled precision machine.
minus the negative symbolism of course.
ok, let’s rephrase: like a German-engineered, perfected to the last minute detail,
all contingency plans included.
if something goes wrong,
they have backup plans.
they’re prepared with military precision & flexibility.
if something goes really haywire, it’s probably a societal or natural disaster.
in which case no co. is safe anyway.

 

Apple does not compromise on quality.
they are flexible in execution or management though,
and know best how to adapt to change.
they MacOSX symbols: wild cats,
i.e. Puma (2001), Jaguar (2002), Panther (2003), Tiger (2005),
Leopard (2007), Snow Leopard (2009), Lion (2011)…
are so apt & deserved: agile, lean mean sexy machine, flexible, adaptive, survivor!

••••••••••••••••••>
i. do you seriously think Apple can not survive without its genius Steve?

see Apple University.
see Apple pipeline.
see Apple’s many strong leaders.

••••••••••••••••••>
j. do you seriously think Apple has no more room to grow?

see Apple’s ingenious Gestalt theory & proven practice as the only firm to
be in the Black,

be as fit to survive,
be as efficiently organized from top to bottom,
from product/service concept to gui to code to packaging to manufacturing to distribution to marketing etc.
they are as perfectly organized as Nazis but with natural & benevolent efficiencies no one can touch.

 

plus no one beats Apple’s material costs
sure, Apple has grown so much since its small days in 1997,
sure a big conglomerate never grows much,
yet precisely because of such small anal vision & understanding,
does Apple always defy expectations, and hence,
it will keep growing,
as it defies common sense or logic.

 

Apple always has, is and will defeat standards. 
when competitors or fat corporations are stuck,
Apple acts like a flexible Small Business!
it pisses people off & they thrive on proclaiming doom.
however, Apple never wastes time like other insecure firms,
on opinions,
it just does its work, and therefore always wins.
again, like Germans do–they’re working machines.
but not for greed. for the love of what you do, passion, and principles.
just when you think everything has been invented or the market is saturated,
this is what’s so misunderstood by all others,

 

Apple defies logic,
introduces not inventions, but rethinking of ideas,
does it so much better, nicer, more pleasant, more aesthetically, simpler than everyone,
that it sells like bread!

 

the irony is – the defying logic is not Apple’s intelligence, although it is so smart,
but it’s that everyone else does not think, definitely not logically enough,
as they fear and produce in panic or to catch up, but never create, esp. from scratch.
if you are only capable of copying (Apple), you’re not worthy to survive.

 

••••••••••••••••••>
k. don’t forget Apple’s cash!

Apple’s the only co. in the Black
the only debt-free co.
the only one with as much cash: $80B! (Q3 2011)

without cash there is no R&D,
as over 95% of competitors shut down those programs – had they any

without R&D no innovation or differentiation is possible.
only copying is!

••••••••••••••••••>
l. don’t forget Apple’s DNA!

Apple’s DNA IS different.
that’s the simple reason no one has killed or touched it yet.
Apple will only be challenged or threatened,
once someone beats it at its own game,
that is, thinks, feel, moves like it.
that is, uses Zeitgeist & Gestalt,
or natural, organic business practices, like Apple.

its nature is its strength.
its focus is unmatchable.
Steve Jobs, an actual Budhhist since his teens,
not a reawakened pseudo new ager,
ran the business like a Buddhist Biz Man:

• total focus
• total vision
• total purpose
• total perfection
• total stamina
• total will power
• total flexiblity
• total realism
• total peace (never worry @ competition or opinions or $)
• total integration Gestalt (aesthetics, art, mind, body, soul)
• total synergy (success naturally flows to those who care)
• total appreciation (respecting client’s $ / intelligence / time)
etc.

such iBuddha-iBusiness practice is sublime.
it works in short + long term.
because it’s benevolent, generous, genuine.
everybody else fools clients. overcharges. gives nothing much.

so charitable or philanthropic foundations means little.
as once the funds are gone, societies do not change for the better.
Anne Roderick, from BodyShop, coined it “Trade not Aid”
charity is evil. it does not solve the source problem.
it merely throws money at it, but people do not learn to be self-sufficient.
people feel the fake companies, charity or not.
Apple does not need to hide behind advertising how it gives i.e. Bill Gates Foundation.
Appel/Steve just give all the time, silently.
Steve’s co. gave to the world, products people loved, found a joy to use,
as they both just worked as they should, looked good, and simplified lives.
or they inspired millions in their careers.
no one can claim to have changed the world as much,
as no other co. has rendered so many smiles.
there is not better way to have changed the world.
there is nothing really more significant than bringing joy, meaning,
or raising spirits.

Apple’s products integrate the physical realm of touch,
with the potential of technology,
intertwined with heart of an artist,
simplified to the level of Greek philosophy,
whilst solving real life problems with ease…
it touches people, who become naturally loyal,
as there is simply nothing else out there,
that flows as easily.
such a friendly co. does not exist, but in Apple.

••••••••••••••••••>
m. don’t forget Apple’s loyal fans

the competition needs to realize that
heart & soul gets people.
Apple’s “rebel” or “pirate” image of the 1980s,
defies gravity so much,
that October’s NYC anti-business demonstrations,
otherwise known as OWS (Occupy Wall St)
have not affected Apple negatively!
NO other firm has such loyalty!
they “rebels” against Capitalism were not against Steve Jobs.

Apple symbolizes rebellion in the sense that it is not chaotic,
but sublimely aesthetic in physique & soul.
totally pleasant to the human psyche.
it feels good on all levels.
who else can claim that?!
the rebellion is to do everything in non-standards.
going against the boring & blind status quo.
going for what works better, all the time!
bullshitting less. giving more.
if to be or not to be is the existential question,
Apple at least, unlike Gods, answers!
the Rebel Apple has a cause!

like Apple’s competitors, the media or analysts are perplexed but ignorant.
they did not understand that deep down Apple/Steve
are not about billion$ but passion, soulful solutions.
Apple: Thinks Different
Audi: Lead. Don’t Follow.
Nike: Just do it!
these are Apple’s forté.
unlike competitors, Apple stands by its slogans.
the walk the talk.
they do not b.s.

so naysayers who think Apple is fake, are fake themselves.
they will never understand that a co.
even the size of Apple!
does not lose its mojo like Google (1998).
its rebel spirit or mojo is still active.
not even the Post-Steve era is going to dilute Apple’s mojo.

no other co. has such loyal fans.
no other fans respect a co. as much.
once bitten, you don’t go back, with Apple.
those who hung on to MS Zune, or Windows Vista or 7,
or dull Dell or Android etc.
most of them end up frustrated and lose productivity.
if they have any brains left, they come to papi: Apple.
if they do not, so be it.

Apple has not only many adherents,
it never recruits them by force or through lies or hype.
it is not a cult that way.

Apple’s loyalty is a natural consequence of its product promise & delivery.
Apple’s success, financially, is a natural consequence of its fans – not greed as the media falsely reports.

who begets as much respect and on all levels?
not the competition.
no matter how much they cry over spilled milk.
or how much they bribe journalists for fud i.e. Microsoft / RIMM (Blackberry) / Verizon etc.
or how much they cry foul i.e. Adobe (Flash vs Steve’s “Thoughts on Flash“)

••••••••••••••••••>
n. there’s so many reasons as to why Apple is no way near done.

it’s the lack of Big Thought,
of Vision,
of faith,
determination,
will,
umph,
zest,
energy etc.
that kills all efforts by Apple’s competition.like Steve stated during iPad2’s reveal 2011 March 2:
the iPad competition is nothing but “flummoxed“!
a. none understands Tablets
b. none can keep up with by then 15M iPads sold
c. none can compete with Apple’s price point
d. comScore: 97% marketshare!
e. Microsoft gave up tablet due to iPad’s features
f. RIM publicly lied about Apple made false promises about long battery life
g. RIM’s Marketing head, prior to PlayBook release, resigned after iPad2 specs
h. Samsung’s VP publicly stated Galaxy Tab’s specs/price are inadequate vs iPad2
i. Motorola shareholders panicked as iPad2 killed hope of Xoom
etc, etc, etc…
we could go on & on about how Apple will survive much longer.
and at the top.
and in more industries than today.
but these arguments above, are a logically good start ; )

 

3/JOBSIAN REVELATIONS •

see NMA TV’s funny take on what Steve imagined NeXT for Apple in this YouTube
[tube]iXt-nlqCJRI[/tube]

naysayers think Apple never invented anything.
Apple or Steve are insignificant,
never changed anything,
and no one can last that long,
so that Apple is on its decline now & won’t survive long.
ironically, Apple never claims to invent – it’s the jealous haters who coined this to use to their advantage!
(Apple does claim it does it better, simpler : )

 

Rira bien qui rira le dernier.” as the french proverb goes.
if you act so smart, as you try to argue Apple down, diminish it with your sense of intelligence,
then surely, you must speak more than just one language!
so, no translation here. look it up. google it.

Apple hard #s

1st read the hard #s or facts
in our comprehensive FB article
here!
or see below ; )

2/HISTORIC FACT •
#1
there is no denying that Apple is the most valuable co. in the world.

Apple 2012 / 2013

1998-2012

==========

AAPL 2012 mini me moment:
mini crash from $705 (Sep21) high to $505 (Nov16) from under $600 trend since Oct26.


AAPL 2013
:
13% dive again. lowest price in 13+ months on March 4. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 9.2% only.

so much hype from competition did not help anal-ysts from spreading fudd or panic.
nowadays news is social and politically correct, not morally and factually correct.

no matter what the media/anal-ysts blabber or reason with pseudo-logic,
the fact remains, as also repeated by Richard Saintvilus on Forbes’ article 2012 Dec 10:

 


1. GREAT

Apple is doing great, unlike all competition.
The Great Pretender is not Apple but “they” ; )
AAPL numbers prove it. As simple as that.

AAPL 2013 Q1 was AAPL’s all-time record profits but it’s never good enough?!
AAPL’s P/E is the lowest in the industry. it’s absurd.

how much more profit does it need to make for lousy anal-ysts to get it.
no one else does. all competitors fart out “inventions” or a few extra buttons here & there
and tout it as ‘innovation”.
Innovation does not have to occur yearly or monthly with Apple
for our happiness in life to be fulfilled! that’s our responsibility!

 


2. PROFIT

Apple earned $8.2B more profits in 2012 (the “disappointing” year) vs 2011!!
most firms don’t even make such a profit and yet Apple’s 60% growth is not enough but negative?!

that was 2011, 2012 is much more profitable! $13.1B net profit! on $54.5B rev!! hello?!
give me 1 other firm that achieves this much!! then think: Apple sells luxury items,
not gas that all citizens of the world use daily!!
pundits/naysayers are blind to the marvel that is Apple.

___________
Q2 2013 results (Tue April 23)

• “Apple just Changed Everything” as Evan Niu at Motley Fool emphasizes, about New Capital Structure.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/24/apple-just-changed-everything.aspx
Tim Cook at conference call pointed out Apple’s $50B(!!) share buyback increase (over last: $10B)
is the “largest single share repurchase authorization in history” (of any corp.)!
For those nincompoop anal-ysts who expected the worst for Q2, Apple once AGAIN beat the St.
Show me the money – show me 1 other co. that produces such numbers!!

• anyways, investors cried for “shockingly large” buyback & got much more!
are you happy now or still bitching?!
Buybacks are usually negative on stocks due to bad timing + signaling trouble ahead – but Apple did it smartly & right!

• Apple beat the St. Period! Blowout?
No but who cares! It topped low expectations!
Your greed still wants more? Apple changed the conversation – so, Beat It!
Go complain elsewhere. Stop your awkward inadequacies & do something significanct with your lives. Actually – get a life!
What have you done lately to dent the Universe?!

• What does this say about the worst stock loss in Apple’s history, the last 2 Quarters or 1/2 year, as Apple lost $280B worth of value!!??
It proves so much that analysts…

1. do not understand Apple
2. are so unpredictable, they should all be fired & their job category annihilated.

Apple is better at inventing & sustaining new product categories that it is for analysts to do their job reliably/properly/ethically!

• Quarterly dividend increased from $2.65/share to $3.05 too.
Show me the money competitors, show me you’re not flummoxed – because Apple is NOT!

REV for Q2 = $43.6B;  $8.8B from China alone. Net $9.5 or $10.09/share.
Apple expects next Q3 rev to be $33.5-35.5B

• Extra Q cash: $145B!! (more than some countries & in only 1 Q!)

• SALES:  37.4M iPhones / 19.5M iPads

• Gross MARGINS: 37.5%! more than any corp. by far! still nearly 2x! but it’s never good enough as AAPL was at 47.4% yoy.
Apple expects next Q3 Margins to be $36-37%

• After Hours trading, following the 5pm conference call, AAPL increased 6%!
but lost all as investors still try to digest one of the biggest data bombs at Apple ever, still under-appreciating the new advantages

for all Q2 stats see live notes on conference call here: http://wp.me/p19WFc-qTI

 

___________
Q1 2013 results

Wall St got it more wrong than ever. pundits are immature, ignorant.

after decades of chances they are still anal-ysts and did not learn that you can not judge Apple by the same rules.
just as you can not read Isaacson’s Steve Jobs biography to learn how to lead any firm as iSteve, as no other co. has Apple’s culture or DNA. So, AAPL Q1 2013 beat all records of any tech co. in history, yet it’s never good enough for Wall St. all competitors are in the Red and invent nada yet AAPL is supposed to be the magical God that creates happiness every week?!

 

still:

• AAPL is more profitable than any firm ever.
• AAPL’s iOS has become a new economy unto itself. so is iTunes. as is iPad. iPhone. when competitors have none!
• AAPL sold 47.8M iPhone in 1Q!! 10M more than yoy! pundits never saw more than 10 in a lifetime in 2007! no growth?! 39% growth yoy!
• AAPL sold 22.9M iPads in 1Q! vs 15.4M yoy!
• AAPL sold 10 iDevices/second!! who can match that?!
• AAPL no longer popular or growing? 7% more AppleStore visitors yoy.
• AAPL revenue is higher than GDP of many countries, some in a single quarter!
• AAPL not shareholder-friendly? Tim Cook at Q1 2013 promised hihger div/buyback (both should raise stock)

AAPL should reach $2000 acc. to Michael Saylor, CEO and founder of Microstrategy,
as he stated on film in Motley Fool interview 2013 Jan 12.
http://goo.gl/E6bpW. He’s very long on AAPL.

Saylor reasons:
• desire
• loyalty
• cool

Saylor:
“Look, Apple Computer was worth $3 billion 12 years ago, and then it went to $600 billion. If you ask me, Apple Computer is going to $2,000 a share. I’d be very, very long on that company. Whoever is selling that stock must be a moron

…knowing part of a subject is just enough to hurt yourself somehow.

…No. Their gross margins don’t have to tailor down.

…the entire society will go from 2 billion to 3 billion to 5 billion white collar workers. As their discretionary income increases, they’re going to buy more and more expensive things, and anybody sitting in the middle of that controlling the software application networks that have all the asset value in them, those companies are going to benefit in a marvelous fashion.”

 

_________
GROWTH

even after another record Q3 2013, the stock did not jump up. It did stop the bleeding. But it only went from $398, the day prior to the Q2, to $406 the day of the Q2 Tue Apr 23 (though it was stated after hrs), to $405 next day, to $413 Fri 26, after some perspective.

The analysts are truly anal. They still don’t get. It seems they never ail. Let’s just give up on them already.
They still panic!
OK, so the best thing to do, is to get some decent, proper, professional, zen Perspective!
John Kirk does it logically, calmly right here! ; ) …in his TechPinions article “Apple in Perspective” 2013-04-25

Kirk’s main thesis:
1. ANNUALIZE:
Stop analyzing AAPL quarterly. It’s simple:
The moment you see it Annually, do you not prefer its profits & growth rates to HP / Dell / Msft / Android / Samsung / Google / Amazon?!

2. INFANCY: Mobile market is still in its infancy, there’s growth for all;
– iPhone grew 7% last Q, iPads 65%! So all those supplier shortages in the media was what, lies?!
– As for the hyped news on China/Japan preferring Android/Samsung/HTC etc: Apple growth was more than double last Q! Media/Analysts lies again?!
– 77% of all corporate mobile activations were from iOS last Q! Again, media B.S.
iPad is used in 95% of Fortune 500 firms in U.S. or 89% globally!
So, dear anal-ysts/media: where’s the competition growth you keep talking about and beating AAPL for?!

3. CRITIQUE:
Apple naysayers criticize it for being: un-innovative / passé / niche. So what!
Apple is still unique & here’s how it differentiates itself:

a. the same analysts who put AAPL at $700+ last Sept. now pile on criticism!
are they neurotic? this time they use absolutely no logic when if anyone, they should be the scientifically analytical ones.
they speculate (guess) & invest with eMotion not sense! Their school of non-thought is “behavioral finance*”
Read more in Oliver Pursche’s Forbes article “Put Emotions Aside and Buy Apple, Here’s Why” from 2013-04-25.
b. (legal) App Stores in 155 countries!
c. iTunes Stores in 119 countries!
d. cloud members: 300M! iCloud users
e. loyalty: highest loyalty/customer satisfaction rates anywhere;
95% on iPhone (J.D. Power) or 96% on iPad (ChangeWave)!
f. developers: 155 countries! Reach: 90% world population!
850k iOS apps (350k iPad).
45B app download!
$9B developer earnings ($4.5B just in last Q or acc. to Canalys 74% of all app downloads ww!
– no growth?!)!
$1B/Q profit for developers!

*behavioral finance school trouble:
– analysts refuse to meet with co. mgt!
– they think relationships cloud judgment yet but nevertheless they still kill firms on eMotion!

4. REV
$43.6B rev: what did competition earn!?
$9.5B profits: competition flummoxed?!
$37.5% margins: for Apple hardware! it compares to MSFT/Google software!
Google averages lower than Apple, MSFT higher acc. to Asymco.

5. OUTLOOK:
John Kirk:
a. Apple manages the biz long-term unlike competition. Short-term profit focus is short-sighted
b. strategy counts
c. cheap products make cheap experiences.
d. again: Look at AAPL, not Quarterly but Annually:
do you not prefer its profits & growth rates to HP / Dell / Msft / Android / Samsung / Google / Amazon?!

Oliver Pursche
e. AAPL has record revenues each Q
f. AAPL just offered history’s largest share buyback: $100B!
since no investors flock back to AAPL, they’re clueless!
investors created the clutter! not Apple!
g. AAPL is still the most profitable U.S. co.
h. AAPL trades at S&P 500 discount: 9.2x vs 14x
i. AAPL div yield: 2.7% vs S&P 500 2.03%! that was last Q! Since Q2 2013 AAPL is 3.05%!
j. AAPL grows faster than S&P 500 consensus forecast
k. AAPL sits on 38% share price cash! who else does that!
investors would invest in AAPL if they heard all the above without knowing the name, right!

 

 


3. PROOF

 

• Apple is the only recession-proof firm, the only one that defies gravity
• AAPL is the only one in the Black for years

 

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

Happy: AAPL might no longer make anal-ysts happy in 2013 but who cares about their opinion or market share?!
Profits: 1st, it is not market share but profits that matter, keep you alive, give you R&D funds + infrastructure  like no other.
Loyalty: 2nd, without customer loyalty, if you can’t keep them happy, you have nothing more than temporary hype on bells & whistles without a sound & balanced foundation.

show me another firm who can achieve this much, and without a revolutionary new product every month:

• 4Trillion Notifications!
• 450B SMS messages!
• 40B App downloads!
• $12B iTunes economy onto itself!

most anal-ysts & pundits & naysayers & journalists do not get Apple, this much is established.
it is not about whining as Chuck Jaffe at MarketWatch put it 2013 Jan 25 (http://goo.gl/dW8dV)
– since his entire anal-ysis is typically seeing the trees, not forest.

Odd, since at same media firm, Ian Salisbury, the day before, did say

“But like so many things with technology giant Apple Inc.,
the regular rules don’t seem to apply.”
in his article “How Apple ate Wall Street” (http://goo.gl/MjDmp)
in which he reminds us all that “No company has ever had as big an impact on your portfolio.”

SeekingAlpha‘s Josh Arnold argues that
“Apple’s Earnings Expectations Have No Basis In Reality
in his article 2013-02-07 http://goo.gl/v1cMc

 

Cody Willard at MarketWatch argues it is
Time to get real about Apple’s fundamentals
in his article 2012-12-17 http://goo.gl/OyGul

Rocco Pendola put it succinctly in his 2013-01-29 The St article
Apple Hate Has Spun Out of Control and It Needs to Stop” http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/11825852.html

Pendola  “Apple is not here…to fill the voids we have in our lives…haters even realize what they’re doing, we expect Apple to come along and ease our anxiety…it will…not give you the time of your life with every single piece of news…NEWSFLASH! Apple already enriched our lives. It has changed the world several times over in the last few years…Apple hasn’t solved the human…But, Apple is the reason you are on your phone 24/7 to do everything…Even if you don’t use an Apple device, you owe Apple that much…If you appreciate innovation, believe in promoting the best America has to offer…”

 

2013 Feb 15 Seeking Alpha‘s Sneha Shah argues Apple has to grow (http://goo.gl/kx3EG):

Why buy:
1. Presence across all major consumer products
2. Valuation is Cheap on both Absolute and Relative Basis
3. Innovation and Marketing Strengths
4. Sentiment is highly negative now
5. Fortress like Balance Sheet
6. Enterprise Entry
7. Expand into Emerging Markets

 

 


4. FEARLESS

 

Apple is the only firm whose fans are so loyal because nothing Apple does really disappoints for more than a split moment if at all, vs all competitors tried for over a decade but failed overall to compete with Apple, as they fail to realize that Apple’s seeming Reality Distortion Field, is not a distortion except on their part, for being so incompetent. Stockholm Syndrome or stupidity, ineptness, peudo innovation, does not make up for it! You can no longer fool users in the info-age. Does it not say much about naysayers & competitors that even copying & trying for over a decade without success to supercede Apple, that they’re doing something wrong, that they do not know more or better than Apple, that Apple is doing great, no matter how much they reason to the contrary, that their non-success is proof of inadequacy and being out of touch with users? Sure, they only recently started showing success against Apple yet Amazon Kindle & Google Android never produce numbers to prove their platforms are eating away at Apple! Apple always shows clear numbers, is thus the clear winner. Apple is not afraid, competitors are desperados. Think before you read media hype!

 

great point in MacObserver‘s article 2013-03-23 by John Martellaro
(http://goo.gl/lZDkg • http://wp.me/p19WFc-qtJ):
whilst all media/analysts/naysayers get busy being dizzy on how badly Apple has handled its historic,
excessive cash pile ($137B), Apple is correct!

a. WASTE: typical corporations with cash waste it

b. PROFIT: typical corps. with too much cash share it with shareholders but dividends as Steve Jobs proved, does not really enrich shareholders

c. FEARLESS: Apple is the only Fearless big shot out there, who still take big risks as proven by the hiring/firing of  John Browett (ex-Dixons) for retail chief or Mark Papermaster (ex-IBM) for chips.

d. SERIOUSLY: does any pro seriously think Apple is not professional, serious, smart, forward-thinking, flexible, powerful, rich, responsible enough etc. to not be deeply involved in developing the NeXT Grandmaster Chess Move that will risk much but surprise & take the Breath Away of the entire world!?

it could be 1 or more of these tricks up theirs sleeves – not to mention the Surprise Factor we can’t be as smart enough to think about, since we’re the poor ones ; )

 

About Fearlessness 

• why bother predicting. it’s guesswork, not matter which “sources” say it.

• it’s a waste of time in precision or fact – though its only valor is speculative fun.

“Apple’s whatever-it-is will be different, a response to needs customers barely know or understand until they see the solution. Yes, that’s Apple’s way.” as reminds us Gene Steinberg in TechNewsOwl article 2013-02-25 (www.technightowl.com/newsletter/2013/03/newsletter-issue-695/#ropes).

So who cares about  “members of the media will, as usual, tell you chapter & verse why it just cannot succeed.” The reason rumors spread so furiously about Apple, esp. about its doom, Gene explains, is “Yes, maybe Apple’s refusal to comment about many stories helps fuel the fires of uninformed commentary. In the end, Apple may believe that any publicity is good publicity, and that, in the end, customers probably won’t care.” put in another way, Michael Hiltzik at LA Times blames Apple for AAPL demise, as Apple invites poor analysis + conjecture + misunderstanding & thus trumps actual knowledge; read on article from 2013-03-22 “How Apple invites facile analysis” (http://goo.gl/bP1IH)

 

iSteve 

Again, does anyone seriously think the world’s biggest influencer in tech,
no matter how much you hate him,
who had the uncanny ability to predict the tech future
at least in society & precisely unlike chance guesses by Nostradamus,
did not foresee the pessimism of world recession & the effect of the market analysts or media & competitors on AAPL?!
come on!
iSteve planned for 1 year post hist death?!
he planned for a decade at least!
he gave his child, Apple, multiple strategies on how to fight all types of battles.
on how to keep innovating & surprising/delighting the world!
don’t believe it? just watch how Apple is not too big to fail, how they are flexible, risk takers, and despite all the doomstayers will stay beyond any other tech firm in history with much more excitement to come.
after all, who solves technology so humanely, aesthetically for our ease of use & enjoyment as much, as deeply, ubiquitously, deliciously, stably, reliably etc, smoothly?!

 

i. iPay / iWallet

ii. iWear (clothes manages all your pass codes transparently incl. payments or starting car engine or validates IDs)

iii. eBook (more consumer-oriented: cheaper than print minus pusblisher abuse of personal data stealing like kindle )

iv.  Adobe CTO Kevin Lynch:
the Flash guru who Apple hated.
But what if his controversial hire by Apple March 19, 2013, is to prove that Lynch was at wrong firm & under Apple can create the NeXT Big Thing i.e. iWork/iLife suite X etc. with his diverse talents. Apple, like no other firms, is Machiavelian/Sun Tzu in its shrewdness, minus the dirty takeover overlord like Microsoft or Google that buys a co. each week. so, those are exciting times, to see how Apple turns a former “enemy” into the next Genius Chess Move to surprise All.
See details in Rene Ritchie’s Mar 20 iMore article (http://www.imore.com/swinging-stars)
“Swinging for the stars: On Apple’s hiring of Kevin Lynch”.
Adobe’s CTO Kevin Lynch is now Apple’s VP of Technologies, under Bob Mansfield (Sr. VP of Tech.),
who will coordinate the fusion between hard-&-soft-ware divisions.

 

 

 


5. COMPETENCE

 

Catch-Up:

naysayers, doomsayers, only see Apple crumbling.
When it’s the others that are scrambling, never catching up.
Some, but never fully.
By that time Apple has redefined the industry standards, so they’re all behind again
& will incessantly play catch-up.
That will never change, lest Apple’s competitors not only think, think different,
but conceive visionary products & services in areas Apple is not!
They all had 12 years since the iMac 1998-08 or iPod 2001-10 to do better than Apple!
if you can’t in 14 years, don’t you think it’s logical to argue it won’t happen?!

 

Break:

Why do we not cut Apple some slack?!
Show me another firm that gives us as much!

Since Apple is the only firm Wall St cares to hound as much for every move,
and is never pleased with, as it’s never enough, despite all records,
obviously for loving it in jealousy as much inside,
Apple has the most pressure of any, to perform at stratospheric levels too!

So, as Guy English wrote on Kicking Bear, the retention among the rank & file is 1 of Apple’s biggest challenges: proof that Apple-quality talent or hires are the hardest to find/replace!
In other wors, Apple does have the world’s TOP staff – with or without Steve.

 

Rene Ritchie reminds us of Apple’s power in Mar 20 iMore article (http://www.imore.com/swinging-stars):

Ritchie “Where many companies become risk-adverse, or retreat within, Apple is and always has been relatively fearless when it comes to embracing the future. Steve Jobs once equated the launch of the iPhone to Babe Ruth hitting home runs. Apple as company seems unafraid to swing for the stars. The consequence is that, sometimes, they swing and miss.”

Ritchie cites examples: Phil Schiller went from clumsy Macromedia & tim Cook from uninspiring Compaq,
both to embrace Apple culture & rise at Apple. Adobe’s Lynch did create Creative Suite & Creative Cloud,
so he’s a perplexing yet audacious bold, competent move by Apple.
Proof that Apple, not matter how big, still takes Risks!
Sure, risks can fail, but what if Apple reaches the Stars again, with yet another leg?!
That IS the Question on being or not, #1!

 

ECOSYS:

Plus all the gloomers forget that AAPL stock only loses
because of analysts & brokers who manipulate the stock like no other.
Every whisper & sneeze affects it – without logic or cause –
as Apple is no matter what, the stablest tech firm around that ever was,
& the most responsible
& with the most stable foundation(s) or fundamentals on all levels (conception/production/marketing/distribution/business).
The biggest secret is not what’s NeXT but THAT it IS its undervalued Ecosystem!
No one can touch (compete with) Apple due to this X-Factor!
Ironically, it is not Apple but the rest that have the unguaranteed gloomy future:
FB / Goo / Amazonians / Microdough / BB etc.

Now – show me a co. that is more competent than Apple to succeed and still grow?
Read more in Seeking Alpha article 2013 Apr 12 http://goo.gl/ZhnXn

Now, show me another firm with such big Cojones!

 

 


6. FRESHNESS

 

Fresher!

give me another co. that is not just a cash hoard but without debt!
Apple no longer innovative?!
hello.
Apple is made up of humans, not magicians.
Apple is not perfect, but more so than any other.
Pundits/naysayers complain Apple lost its vision/magic/mojo since iSteve died…

yet Tim Cook on 2013-01-23 promised
“We are working on some incredible stuff, the pipeline is chock full.”

empty promise?
consider Apple the most honest of all corporate liars ; )
plus, seriously, who really invents stuff & that keeps customers loyal?!

Want Bold?
Apple hires enemy, Adobe’s CTO Kevin Lynch for VP of Tech on 2013 Mar 19.
He did Flash!
But could do iCloud Suite or more!
Apple’s freshness can be its cojones!

 

So yes, not even Apple can innovate every 6 months!
Everyone else does not in years, yet Apple must innovate quarterly?!
Think!

 

Jay Yarow at BusinessInsider argues Apple’s innovation is certainly not dead since Steve’s death (2011-10-05).
see article 2012-12-29 http://goo.gl/y7JP8

some reasons:

• Give me one firm that invented something Apple should be envious about?!

• iSteve had own flaws/misjudgments yet Apple excelled thanks to other execs too (still there : )

Apple is more aware of what is “in” or will be “hot” than anyone, aware of its flaws,
more flexible to change or adjust, move on vs excuse

• watch out for Next revolution:
full AppleTV etc.;
revolutionary inventions do not happen monthly but average 3 years, at least at Apple – competitors take longer ; )

 

What logic is that?
If Apple innovated multiple industries but has for a while – they’re suddenly dormant?!

None of its competitors are innovating beyond a few bells & whistles, color changes, gadgetry,
yet Apple stopped innovating when they’re improving the inside vs mere outside looks?!

Those are silly, ingornant arguments.

Apple changed everything & if they do not cannibalize themselves,
improve incessantly on their innovations,
whilst others never innovate beyond superficial changes,
& when they do, claim to be revolutionary vs dormant Apple,
when in fact, Apple’s products are increasingly perfected instead, into the most robust, smooth operators.

If that’s not innovation, what is?!

It’s simply impossible to revolutionize in innovation, every 1/2 year.
Tech too must mature before it innovates.
Anyways, what have the competitors innovated or revolutionized lately?!

Android is a chaotic mess for partners as well as users.
The desperate rush to compete with Apple does not innovate,
but cripple what might be better than Apple but what is never proven,
not in products or services or the stock market.

No matter how badly Apple seem to be doing, not in fact, but due to competive bribes or hype and anal-ysts,
Apple is still the only one…

a. in the black!
b. debt-free!!*
c. the most stable firm out there

Mike Elgan at Cult of Mac further illustrates the insanity & silliness of this late anti-Apple trend & rant or distrust in his article 2013-04-20 entitled
“It’s Time to Kill the ‘Apple Doesn’t Innovate’ Argument
www.cultofmac.com/?p=224293

main thesis:
1. Vision does NOT mean you try whatever to find out what works
2. so-called “innovative companies” are the biggest Apple fans
3. it’s in perfecting a previous vision, not just inventing for its own sake

Google approach to innovation:
platform ecosystem

Samsung approach to innovation:
serving the market

Egan “Apple clearly innovates, and they do so very selectively and with enormous purpose and vision. They have a create-new-market-then-perfect-on-the-vision approach that, while it leaves them open to being called less than innovative, it also works better — far better — than any other model out there from a business perspective.”

Seriously, how can anyone doubt Apple can not innovate?!
can not go bigger with iPhone?
can not change colors on iDevices?
Apple is not into arbitrary novelties into whoring for every niche hole
– and what do those for peep’s sake have to do with innovation?!
the press is silly. naysayers are jealous.

some think they’re smartly interpreting Apple’s 70% market profits as weak vs. Android’s majority unit sales, as they think it proves popularity that will eventually beat Apple.

Silly arguments since
1. SUSTENANCE: profit  sustains – losses will eventually wipe you out no matter how popular you might be.
2. POPULARITY: if Apple keeps selling at profit, how is that not a stat for popularity?!
3. CAUSE: ever think that cheap or un-SmartSmartPhones are bought due to being that cheap and marketing hype? your presumption is that millions who thought they’d be clever to go against Apple for its own sake of seeming cool end up switching when they admit they’ve been rebels without a cause. your supposition is that Apple sells on marketing lie / reality distortion vs gained 250Million subscribers (the highest # valid current credit card accounts of any corporation) on brainwashed cult of adherents, which is ironic, since most Android users are simply droids, passionless, classless, blinded, stubborn, unsuccessful losers or whiners, maladjusted haters or rebels.

 

*Debt-Free!

• give me another co. that is! you can count them!

• how can anal-ysts or naysayers or doomsdayers @ Apple claim all they do if:
all of them have big mouths
but are all poor
& never accomplished anything of any significance or worthy of cultural/societal change?!
(it’s easy to pretend to be smarter or bitch & wish Schadenfreude – walk the talk instead!)

+ Apple has several subsidiaries that are worth entire Economies in themselves
(that is, richer than some entire countries)
i.e. $12B/yr iTunes  or 40B App downloads etc.

 

Cash. Cash. Cash!

give me another co. that is not just a cash hoard but without debt!

Apple’s $137B cash (as of 2013 Q1)
is again bitched by anal-ysts as being the worst corporate portfolio management in history?!!?
yes, as those managers are greedy!
but do you seriously think Apple got to where it is & within 14 years since its near-bankruptcy in 1998,
if it were dumb, irresponsible, or lost its vision & is doomed?!
come on people!
think!
think different!
Apple pre or post Steve never could or can be judged like other firms! get it! enough FUD or disinformation or panic!

repeat: $137B cash!! $0 debt!!

Apple should replace the u.s. gov. for fiscal responsibility at least!
so, if you think a little logic, this unheard of corp. cash pile ($137B) is NOT a waste!

a. Apple has a master plan
just because you can not imagine what the hell they could do with it, does not mean they do not have a plan

b. what happens if Apple rid the $137B just to please you moronic anal-ysts?
there’s a pretty realistic scenario in today’s volatile world market with worldwide recessions/depressions/inflations/deflations:

what if China goes wrong & Apple has to move all its factories to the West?! yeah!
it would have no cash if it were up to you!
so, you would have bankrupted the world’s top firm! brilliant!
now stop bitching. think. or get laid.
it’s so tiring to hear your voices without sense or sensibility.
it’s people like you who “dummify” the world so much, it’s not wonder E.T.s do not bother showing up.

 

Perfection IS Innovation too!

• Whilst Apple perfects “revolutionary” products it never sleeps unlike the competitors who always play catch-up.
• Sooner than later, Apple’s seeming dormancy or “normalcy” will spit out the NeXT Big Thing anyway!

a. Post-Steve Apple is not asleep! AS if Steve Jobs would not plan 5-10 years ahead!

He just died, yet doomsayers are quitting on Apple,
whilst competitors do not revolutionize or ubiquitize anyting in decades
– & they’re not the living dead but Apple is?!

b. Tim Cook can not be expected to lead beyond iSteve if he’s barely 2 years into the job

& iSteve’s influence will last a few more years,
so all this nonsense research on Apple not surviving without Steve or dying through a dry Tim,
is nothing but silly talk.

 

Show me the money.
Apple has it.

Show me fan loyalty.
Apple.

Show me humanized tech.
Apple.

Show me revolution, with evolution in between.
Apple.

Show me soul.
Apple.

Show me ubiquitous ease.
Apple.

Show me 2013-16 innovation.
– iMac 5mm
– AppleTV
– MacPro
– iWear
– iWallet
– iCloud X
– iPad SmartCover with  1. Inductive Charging  2. built-in Solar Panel
– Flex Display (curved glass)
– Haptic Touch (Finish Senseg)
etc.

 

Last but not Least!:
Samsung caught lying about its product worth!

the only real competitor in last decade for Apple has been the recent juggernaut Samsung.
how’s that for innovation: Everyone bashed Steve Jobs/Tim Cook for Apple focusing on law suits instead of innovation in last 3 years, yet


1. it’s their right since everyone copies them
2. how about the headlines in UK’s serious newspaper The Independent on 2013 Feb 25 “Tax evasion, bribery and price-fixing: How Samsung became the giant that ate Korea”
3. add to that the 2013-04-17 article by Jonny Evans @ComputerWorld “Samsung paying students for ‘fake Web reviews’”  http://goo.gl/uVmbd  

 

Apple is no way near done. It’s the only firm that can really afford R&D!! – hello?!

 

 


7. Apple Q1 2012 Earnings Call results

 

FIN

  1. $46.33B rev!!
  2. $38.85B! was consensus: 7.48B+!!
  3. $13.06B profit!
  4. $97.6B cash ($61B offshore)
  5. AAPL close today $420
  6. AAPL after hrs/call $452
  7. 58% int’l sales
  8. gross margins 44.7% vs 38.5 yoy

 

PROD

09. 37.04M iPhones (128% growth yoy)
10. 15.43M iPads (+111%; 55M iPads in all) (or big ass revelation: tablet market surpassed PC desktop market!)
11. 5.2M Macs (+26%; growth 20 consecutive Q but still single digit ww share)
12. $1.7B iTunes Store
13. $700M App Store developer rev (2+ times Yahoo overall profits!) (AAPL paid $4B all-time)
14. $6.1B Apple Retail Stores rev (+59% yoy) (110M visitors)
15. 140M iTunes downloads
16. 600k+ iBooks Author downloads in 1st wk
17. $23.4B rev from iPhone & its accessories
18. $9.1B rev from iPad & its accessories
19. 315M iDevices sofar (55M iPads)
20. iPhone4S avail. in 90 countries
21. 85M use iCloud
22. 170K iPad apps
23. 1.4MQ AppleTV (2.8M 2011)
24. 130K pos for iPhone ww

 

CASH

• no plans yet
• no dividends/buybacks yet

anti DIV analysts:
– Cramer, The Street 2012 Feb 27 http://j.mp/xi14vj%0A
– Tim Cook (Apple CEO)
– see full Apple Shareholder meeting at Morgan Stanley 2012Feb23 http://www.cnbc.com/id/46498962

pro DIV analysts:
Martin Hutchinson, Money Morning Press, 2012Mar5 http://j.mp/xtU3DM%0A

 

COMPETITION

26. iPad not affected really by Amazon Kindle Fire launch
27. iPad cannibalizes Windows PCs much more than Macs

 

anyone still doubt Apple?
– it’s been blasting expectations for 3 years in a row despite worldwide economic recession.
– it’s practically the only recession-proof tech firm in the Black…

– no competitor or even alliance of, can compete with Apple’s brain, power, $,
creativity, vision, quality control, passion, respect, experties, ease,
sophisticated simplicity or simple sophistication,
infrastructure, marketing, flair, taste, ubiquity, influence, fan loyalty
etc.
etc.
etc!

 

 

MAGIC

Apple is nothing short of remarkable.

all those naysayers/haters are jealous, neurotic, stockholm-syndromed nincompoops
whose big loud mouths jump ahead of what they ever accomplished: nada,
esp. when Apple changed 7+ industries, not just 1 in a lifetime.
as for those market anal-ysts* – most get it wrong most of the time.

*we’re not exaggerating.
see the chart below Pros vs Indies to prove point of how badly they analyze.

otherwise see original chart:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/25/apples-blow-out-quarter-once-again-the-street-blew-it

 

TOP analyst (as usual, the most reliable):
Horace Dediu from Asymco, 5.54% error margin in AAPL’s cumulative categories

 

the BIG IRONY is:
• all those doubters…NONE can or do it better than Apple
• not for the last decade!
• and yet they all always put down Apple & know how to do it better…
– funny, why are they all bankrupt, except Apple?!

some of us are still fooled to believe everyone else but Apple.
how, when the #s speak for themselves.
every competitor use fake #s
i.e. they count Shipping vs. actual sales.
…and most shipments never get sold!
…or most non-Apple products are returned, dysfunctional, too expensive to support, have no support…

 

ironically too, AAPL’s P/E is amongst the lowest in the industry.
Wallstreeters are just that: streeters, hit whores.
unserious. unprofessional. unethical schmucks.

Steve might live in the iCloud now but is watching ever more with thermonuclear vision…

what more than 10+ years of proof is needed in this world?!
illogical. unethical. disinfo FUD. politically correct maybe, but full of bull (not as in bullish but b.s. ; )
whose arrogant now?

 

the BIG QUESTION is:

Schadenfreude!
what kind of sick culture/society do we have, in which we cherish to bring down the only firm in the black,
that is recession-proof & saves our pride worldwide as the only worthy Made in USA brand?!

should we not learn from Apple, encourage studying its economic sense etc.?
it is no wonder we self-destruct and our political system, though democratic, is spoilt to the brim.

you can not ignore Apple!
not on any level.
from concept to actualization to numbers.

 

to put it in perspective:

1. GROWTH
simply put: AAPL, despite being the world’s #1-2 co. in MarketCap, grew revenues this Q by 73%!!!

SeekingAlpha’s Bill Maurer 2012-11-14 states “Investors Don’t Understand Apple’s Math” http://buff.ly/TI66k3


problem: investors/anal-ysts/media etc. grow fear, not math or logic or sense…

 

2. BLOW
it blew estimates by 40%!!
just the estimate blow is worth Nicaragua’s 2011 GDP!
or AAPL is worth more than Greece

tweeted CNN
https://twitter.com/#!/cnntech/status/160065013980209155

or as Jordan Golson tweeted:
AAPL profit(!) this Q1 2012 = Revenue Q4 2010
https://twitter.com/#!/jlgolson/status/161929421849239552

or Dennis K. Berman tweeted:
AAPL cap is now worth ALL co. on earth except 52!

or as Farhad Manjoo tweeted:
AAPL Q profit(!) exceeds Google‘s entire Q rev $13B vs $10.6B
https://twitter.com/#!/fmanjoo/status/161932440737296386

or as tweeted:
AAPL Q profit exceeded all of Hollywood GROSS box office receipts for all 2011! by $3B!
https://twitter.com/#!/AntDeRosa/status/161941919595905026

3. #1
AAPL is world’s #1 co.
in terms of MarketCap: $422.37B!!
beyond even Exxon: $417.87B
not to mention Apple is #1 in most of its product categories + in customer satisfaction + marketing +++

AAPL is now officially world’s #1 SmartPhone maker too
(37M iPhones vs Samsung #2 is guesstimated at 35M last Q)

imagine that! AAPL is worth $4.5B more than Exxon.
if you realize that XOM is all @ oil/gas which all people on the planet use daily,
as opposed to AAPL’s luxury products/services,
this is unbelievable for Apple!

 

see chart: Largest Corp Q Earnings of All Time
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_profits_and_losses#Largest_Corporate_Quarterly_Earnings_of_All_Time

4. BIRTH
more iPhone sold daily than babies are born!!

402k vs 300k
http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/01/25/there-are-now-more-iphones-sold-than-babies-born-in-the-world-every-day

5. REV
AAPL Q rev from only iPhones generates more revenue than all of MSFT!
$24.42B vs $20.89B
http://betanews.com/2012/01/24/iphone-generates-more-revenue-than-all-microsoft

6. HISTORY
see AAPL’s historically unequaled rise from Phoenix to iGod:
the SeekinAlpha chart:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/321774-apple-now-worth-100-per-share-in-cash

7. GDP
see the mind-boggling AAPL chart below compared to country GDPs!
or see it at Macromon site:
http://macromon.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/apples-big-beat-2

8. CAP
or compare this amazing MarketCap chart!
AAPL only had $1B when Steve Jobs returned in 1997.
he rose his child like a true Phoenix from the brink to iGod status…
MSFT lent Apple $1B in 1997 but AAPL is now worth 42% more than MSFT!
DELL suggests AAPL shuts down in 1997, yet DELL is now worth 7% of AAPL!!

world rank (2012 Q1):
01.  $422.37B    Apple (AAPL)
02.  $417.87B    Exxon Mobil (XOM)
03.  $246.19B    Microsoft (MSFT)   (MSFT profit was $6.6B vs AAPL $13B)
04.  $222.64B    IBM (IBM)
05.  $210.24B    Wal-Mart (WMT)   (WMT rev was $109B vs AAPL $46B yet its profit was merely $3B vs AAPL $13B!)

rest:
$199.06B  GE (GE)                (AAPL is 2.1x bigger than America’s corporate behemoth!)
$188.34B  Google (GOOG)    (AAPL is 2.2x the world’s biggest copier!)
$136.33B  Intel (INTC)
$106.52B  Cisco (CSCO)
$85.04B    Amazon (AMZN)   (AAPL is 5x the Kindle mfr & world’s biggest content provider!)
$70.51B    Disney (DIS)
$56.58B    HPQ                     (AAPL is 7.5x the world’s #2 PC mfr!)
$30.27B    Dell (DELL)           (AAPL is 14x bigger!)
$19.55B    Nokia (NOK)         (AAPL is 21.5x the world’s biggest mobile mfr!)
$18.01B    Sony (SNE)            (AAPL is 23.5x the world’s legendary consumer elec. mfr!)
$19.46B    Yahoo! (YHOO)
$15.21B    Adobe (ADBE)       (AAPL is 28x DTP’s + Flash’s sore loser!)
$11.57B    Motorola (MMI)     (AAPL is 36.5x Google’s acquisition to beat iOS patents!)
$7.74B      RIMM                    (AAPL is 55x the so-called mobile pioneer!)
$7.78B      Sirius XM (SIRI)
$4.55B      Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
$0.25B      RealNetworks (RNWK)

 

 


8. NeXT

 

Not Done

Apple is not done!
has not peaked.

 

1. since EU was 52% rev
and that during EU’s worst economic crisis
and Asia’s # were huge but under EU,
China’s pent up demand for iDevices,
will count towards the next amazing Q!

 

2. Apple’s sheer #s are real, not faked like others
– Apple’s principles of business use a strong foundation
vs the haphazardness & desperation of competitors
who will always play catch-up, not think but copy, follow not lead, whilst Apple just does what it claims

 

TARGETS

$557.85 avg (projections 2012 Q1)
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/01/25/apple-topping-exxon-as-price-targets-zoom

AAPL opened 2012-01-25, after last night’s Earnings Call at:
$454.26 from yesterday’s $420.50 close and P/E is 12.8

 

$1 Trillion
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

proponents:
1. David Zeiler, MoneyMorning Press (2012-03-01)
http://j.mp/wRCEhu%0A

2. James Altucher, Formula Capital (2012-02)

3. Steve Wozniak! (Apple co-founder with Steve Jobs in his 2012 Mar1 Thu interview by CNBC http://j.mp/wdm7IK%0A

Woz “…$1,000 stock price…at 1st you want to doubt it but I actually believe…[Apple is] a lot of companies into one [and] every one is so excellent…Apple is on such a winning course because it’s encapsulated all of its different big products…they all work together…if you buy a product from another company it doesn’t really do as much as one from Apple does. So Apple has a large room for growth.”

4. Henry Blodget, Business Insider (2012-02-29)
http://j.mp/xWEIiP%0A

 

support for AAPL being 1st $T co:

ubiquity + room to grow*
assured by best industry margins + vertical integration,

through:
1. NFC (Near Field Communication wireless payments)
2. iTV
3. iBooks Author

 

*growth potential:
10% PC market through Macs (for instance it reached 45%* in 2013 Q2 from 10% in 2012-01)
20% SmartPhone market through iPhone
70% tablet market through iPad but that market is still in its infancy
AAPL low P/E (15)

*Mac in 2013-04 is 45% PC profits!
more than top 5 PC manufacturers combined!
iPhone profits account for 72% market!
see report by Horace Dediu/Asymco http://www.asymco.com/2013/04/16/escaping-pcs/

only negative impact scenario:
1. if AAPL can’t sustain growth in Existing markets: but it still has much room to grow
2. needs new revenue sources: but it has, as it planned new mind-blowing products for years to come

Evercore’s Cihra, NYT
There’s no mathematical reason Apple can’t keep growing at a premium rate for at least several more years.

 

 

$500 Billion Club history  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

1999-2000
1. Cisco
2. Intel
3. GE
4. Exxon
5. Microsoft (even reached $650B yet briefly!)

 

here’s the Apple advantage:
1. it’s $500B not like others historically amidst Bubble, but within Recession!!
2. Apple own single digit margins or still a small share of huge markets. it has so much room to grow!!
3. nothing matches Apple total smooth product integration/seamlessness/ubiquity/ease/stability etc.

 

$2000  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Andy Zaky (2012-05-09)
(amongst the smartest of the otherwise typical Wall St Anal-ysts; http://j.mp/JKu5g1%0A;
due: iPad mini + iPhone, with Apple’s era peark in 2014 when 2015 AAPL will be mature after years of magical gains)

 

$1650  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Eric Jackson by 2015 (founder of hedge fund IronFire Capital)
(2012 Sep19 Yahoo http://buff.ly/P2N2e9 + Mar 21 Forbes http://goo.gl/gUbY4 + Mar 28 Wed on CNBC)

 

$1600  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

by end 2014, Ernie Varitimos for The Street with exhaustive collaboration
with Master Elliottician & Ted Aguhob of Wave Genius,
2013-03-27 when AAPL was still $460 (http://goo.gl/3xXk8).
3rd Wave will reach slight resistance at $480, then $530 (where it started really falling), then $590…

 

$1180  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Hendi Susanto/Gabelli & Co. (2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560)

 

$1111  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Brian White/Topeka Capital (formerly on Ticonderoga)
(2012-12-28 http://onforb.es/W9xFSW + 2012-04-25 Mon after Q2 day before http://j.mp/I9yQgY%0A)
(last $1001 2012-04-02 Mon http://j.mp/HJmCfI%0A)

 

$1000  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Piper Jaffray (by 2014) (2012-05-25 http://goo.gl/Qx0q5)

due:
01. product roadmap
02. iPhone5
03. carrier phone subsidies ≠ affect Apple
04. iTV
05. unique 40%+ Gross margins
06.  phasing out plan
07. china adoption
08. Tablets eclipsing PCs
09. Enterprise strat
10. Services

 

$910  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Gene Munster/Piper Jaffray (within 1 yr!; was $718)
(2012-04-03 http://j.mp/HFyhfZ%0A)

 

$900  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Gene Munster/Piper Jaffray 2012-11-14 as AAPL reached $540
(due to Sep12 Q3 lower margins + Obama’s re-election fiscal cliff)
http://buff.ly/TIiOzr 

 

$850

Goldman Sachs/Bill Shope (was $750) (2012-04-25 Mon 1 day after Q2 Day
…as annual margins much higher)
http://j.mp/I5OqYK%0A

 

$800

• Canaccord Genuity (2012-12-03 Forbes http://buff.ly/SxqlBl)
• Peter Misek/Jefferies & Co. (2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560)
• Tavis McCourt/Raymond James (2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560
…as China’s 25% share rise is sustainable beyond niche despite Android strength)

 

$790  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Robert Paul Leitao  (2012 Feb11 http://j.mp/xrnpGM%0A)

 

$775  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Mike Walkley/Canaccord Genuity (was $740)
(2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560
…as very strong int’l sales + iPhone 5 this yr + iTV)

 

$760  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

FBN/Shelby Seyrafi (from $730)
(2012-03-19 mon after AAPL’s 9am conference on Cash hoard solution)
http://j.mp/w9dCQc%0A

 

$750  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

• Ben Reitzes/Barclays Capital (was $730) (2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560)

• Toni Sacconaghi/Bernstein Research (was $710)
(2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560 as
“iPhone products cycles appear to be getting increasingly pronounced”)

• Amit Daryanani/RBC Capital + William Power/RW Baird 2012-11-14
as AAPL reached $540
(due to Sep12 Q3 lower margins + Obama’s re-election fiscal cliff)
http://buff.ly/TIiOzr

• Brian Marshall/ISI Group (was $650!)
(2012-04-25 day after Q2 blowout, as stock was at $560…as Apple’s 2nd perfect quarter in a row:
beat rev 25% + EPS 50% last Q, this Q beat rev 20% + EPS 45% + carrier subsidy risk minimal)

 

$720  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Katy Huberty/Morgan Stanley (2012-03-14 from $515; 2013 target $960!)
http://j.mp/x8umdy%0A

 

$718  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Piper Jaffray/Gene Munster (2012-03-19 mon after AAPL’s 9am conference on Cash hoard solution;
changed to $910 1 mth later; http://j.mp/w9dCQc%0A)

 

$710  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

• Ben Reitz @Barclays (2012-03-06 http://j.mp/yZ9OpB%0A)
• Michael Walkley/Canaccord Genuity (2012-03-14 from $665)
• T Michael Walkley & Matthew Ramsay (2012-03-14 wed http://j.mp/xhYMYv%0A)
(due 65.6M iPads for 2012 + 90.6M 2013)


$700  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

• Daniel Ernst/Hudson Square Research (2012-02-17 http://j.mp/A15Xco%0A)
• Ernst is credited with 1st call on AAPl $500 in 2010 Oct! ; )
yet Fortune’s Phillip Elmer-Dewitt notes Ernst has 2nd worst track record after Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty ; )


$699  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Jefferies/Peter Misek (2012-03-19 mon after AAPL’s 9am conference on Cash hoard solution) http://j.mp/w9dCQc%0A

 

$666  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Ticonderoga Securities

 

$650  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

• Morgan Keegan (P/E 15)
• Evercore Partners (was $600)

 

$610  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Merrill Lynch/Scott Craig (2012-03-19 mon after AAPL’s 9am conference on Cash hoard solution) http://j.mp/w9dCQc%0A

 

$620

Needham (2012 Feb 9) (was $540)

 

$600  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

• Goldman Sachs (was $550)
• Citigroup (was $500)
• RBC Capital (was $525)
• Morgan Stanley (2012-02-17 http://j.mp/wYlF4R%0A) (was $480! in Dec’11)

 

$570  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Oppenheimer (2012-02-17) (was $510)

 

$550  ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

R.W. Baird (was $540)

 

$270 ??!?!  •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

for the 1st time (2012 Q1)  the entire market experts are seeing AAPL’s worth,
yet incorrectly, as they still don’t up the P/E from 12 to at least 17 as is standard.

still, there’s one big last schmuck left: Ed Zabitsky, ACI Research, Toronto
who seriously believes Google Android 4 will beat iOS and by far.

can’t believe the idiocy? see proof of his words in MarketWatch article.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/01/25/an-apple-bear-sticks-to-his-270-price-target

 

other non-believers:
Walter Piecyk/BTIG Research (2012-04 concerned @ inventory + stiff upgrades)
Keith Bachman/BMO Capital (2012-04 concerned @ subsidy cuts + price competition)


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